Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning
To embed scenario thinking, organizations must institutionalize new mental habits and ways of working. This, our colleagues have argued, means that leaders must simultaneously instill a conviction that change is needed throughout the organization, role model the desired new behavior, reinforce processes and systems to counter bias, and ensure that the company acquires or builds the skills needed to support the new approach.
To help the organization make better decisions under uncertainty, top managers should freely acknowledge their susceptibility to bias and create an open environment that welcomes dissent. At the same time, they must challenge themselves and their people to embrace new habits of thought—such as thinking the unthinkable—when the company undertakes scenario planning.