V, L or ‘Nike Swoosh’? Economists Debate Shape of Global Recovery
Economists are serving up a menu of alphabet soup in trying to forecast the world economy’s recovery from what is set to be the deepest recession since at least 2009 and perhaps since World War II.
“There is a complex relationship between the path of the virus, the effectiveness of virus containment and economic support policies, and the behavior of the private sector,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists led by Bruce Kasman said in a report to clients this week. “Consequently, there is enormous uncertainty about the path ahead, bringing to mind the adage ‘forecasting is hard, especially the future.’”
Here’s how the recovery would look under each scenario: